Growth Stock Thoughts
AN INVESTMENT IN KNOWLEDGE PAYS THE BEST INTEREST ~ Benjamin Franklin
Meta’s Headwinds and Strategic Misalignment Are Not Virtual
• Too little too late on revamp of adverting algorithm, poor adaptation to Apple’s new privacy rules.
• Significant fall in ARPU, despite increases in ad impressions and increases in monthly active users.
• Expensive barriers for entry for consumers and developers in the Metaverse.
• Headwinds may be difficult to surmount with hiring freeze.
Gold Fields Targets Yamana for Synergies
• Yamana Acquisition target for Gold Fields (GFI) at an announced 33.8% premium using GFI stock.
• Estimated Fair Value of GFI is $16.50 per share.
• Combination of takeover premium and appreciation of GFI is compelling.
• Combined entity would have long mine life with significant brownfield and greenfield expansion opportunities available.
Flash Sale of Meta Platforms (Meta)
Flash Sale of Meta Platforms August 1, 2022 We have sold our position in Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) The company’s attempted pivot to dominance in the Metaverse seems unlikely to be successful. META appears to be overcharging potential developers to utilize its platform causing limited uptake. In addition, the core Facebook business is having difficulty…
Activision-Blizzard Likely Redeemed by Microsoft Acquisition
• Microsoft proposed all cash acquisition at $95 per share.
• Some of the largest and best-selling entertainment intellectual properties of all time, with nearly 400 million monthly active users across all IPs.
• New product launches including several new mobile iterations to expand on total addressable market and free-to-play iterations to help drive player conversion.
Flash Sale of Charlotte’s Web Holdings (CWBHF)
Flash Sale of Charlotte’s Web Holdings (CWBHF) July 27, 2022 Stock has bounced, and I believe Verano Holdings (VRNOF) and Trulieve Cannabis (TCNNF) have better long term prospects and have redeployed the capital. Charlotte’s Web’s business is primarily CBD, and although it is one of the leaders, its US market share remains small, approximately 3%. Overcapacity and poor pricing…
Freeport Sees Glowing Future in Conductive Metals
• 2.3% estimated yield, paying out up to 50% of free cash as a variable dividend ($0.6/share total for 2022).
• Focused primarily on maintaining its strong balance sheet, intermixed with 50% FCF return to shareholders and enhanced capex.
• 25 years of reserves at current extraction rate, set to greatly reduce the cost of extraction with the advancement of ISR mining technologies.
• Large expansion opportunity pool, adding more than 1 billion lbs. of copper output by 2030.
• Estimated Fair Value (EFV) of $27 per share
Legal Cannabis Update: Terrible Stocks Due for a Bounce if Federal Bills Passed
– Senate Bill To Federally Legalize Marijuana And Promote Social Equity Finally Filed By Schumer, Booker And Wyden.
– Full bill including amnesty for some past criminal cannabis activities unlikely to pass.
– A passage of a bill decriminalizing going forward and allowing for financial institutions to service the cannabis industry has bipartisan support and could pass.
– Passing would be positive for the stocks as it would lower their costs and taxes.
Teck Wants to Lead Green Metals with Copper and Zinc
• Plans to double copper production by 2023 to become a top 10 producer of copper.
• Top player in metallurgical coal and zinc.
• Significant shift toward copper and other low-carbon metals to support global decarbonization.
• Record high earnings and low valuation with large stock buybacks.
• Clear capital allocation plan to balance portfolio repositioning and shareholder returns.
• Sustainable earnings through portfolio optimization and efficiency increases.
• 1.7% base dividend enhanced by variable dividend bringing total currently to 3.4%.
• In addition, buybacks will add to shareholder returns.
• Estimated Fair Value (EFV) of $35 per share.
AMD Advances Past Competition with Acquisitions
• Record high revenue, seeing a 71% increase year over year in 1Q22 due to new product mix and favorable pricing with the semiconductor shortage.
• Leveraging record free cash to repurchase shares and launch a campaign of M&A to widen its product mix in the enterprise and supercomputing areas.
• New flagship products dominate consumer and enterprise sections, powering OEM and consumer machines.
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