Market and Economy

Diligence is the mother of good luck ~ Benjamin Franklin

Building Benjamins

April 2022 Economic and Market Review

Economic and Market Review April 30, 2022 Economic Chilling The most recent inflation data released revealed an 8.5% annual increase, yet came in below what many analysts had expected. A consensus is forming, among economists and analysts, that inflation may be peaking. The hope is that the Fed may ease its rapid rate rise trajectory…

Building Benjamins

The Probability of a Recession is Increasing, Trimming, or Selling Parts of the Portfolio.

• Inflation forcing the Fed to stop Quantitative Easing and start Quantitative Tightening.
• Federal Reserve has started to move Fed Funds Rate up.
• Russian invasion of Ukraine will disrupt energy, food and commodity supplies.
• China has another big Covid lockdown which will disrupt supply chains.

Building Benjamins

Tapering QE, Fed Balance Sheet, Interest Rates, Oh My!

Quantitative Tightening Scheduled to Begin This Week.
Fed looks to Aggressively Increase Fed Funds Rate over next several meetings.

Our report from March 11th gives you background information on what you need to know.

Building Benjamins

What the Fed’s ‘Quantitative Tightening’ Plans Mean

Roughly two years after it launched the biggest and broadest monetary-stimulus campaign in modern history, the Federal Reserve is in the process of withdrawing its support for the U.S. economy. The most delicate element of the plan is likely to be shrinking its record balance sheet — something that ended up roiling financial markets the last time policy makers did it. A road map for quantitative tightening, as it’s known, was released April 6, and policy makers have signaled it’s likely to begin in May.

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Quantitative Tightening set to Begin. Stay Cautious. Fed set to raise short rates aggressively.

The Federal Reserve (The Fed) is talking about Tapering Quantitative Easing (QE) and raising the Fed Funds Rate (FFR). The QE tool helped bail out the highly levered and bankrupt US financial system during the 2008 Financial Crisis. The Fed has used it several times since then. The Fed has also stated its intentions to raise interest rates to fight the highest inflation in 40 years. Quantitative Tightening set to Begin. Stay Cautious. Fed set to raise short rates aggressively.

Building Benjamins

March 2022 Economic and Market Review

Economic and Market Review March 31, 2022 Invasion and Inflation The Russia-Ukraine war has intensified inflation expectations due to the threat of global supply chains which are expected to be impaired for an extended period of time.Supply chain issues were already wreaking havoc on global manufacturing, production costs, and consumer availability before the Russian invasion…

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Bill Dudley Says Fed Might Need to Force Stocks to Fall

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Stay Cautious. Sanctions could spark a recession in Europe that may cause Spillover.

• Sanctions do come with severe economic ramifications.
• Europe imports much of its energy, food, and raw materials from Ukraine and Russia. It is likely this will cause a recession in Europe.
• Will it spill into the US? The entire world?
• Stocks could fall another 10-15% from current position if we enter a recession.

Building Benjamins

Tapering QE, Fed Balance Sheet, Interest Rates, Oh My!

Tapering QE, Fed Balance Sheet, Interest Rates, Oh My! March 11, 2022 Introduction The Federal Reserve (The Fed) is talking about Tapering Quantitative Easing (QE) and raising the Fed Funds Rate (FFR). The QE tool helped bail out the highly levered and bankrupt US financial system during the 2008 Financial Crisis. The Fed has used…

Building Benjamins

February 2022 Economic and Market Review

Economic and Market Review February 28, 2022 Russian Geopolitical Risk Geopolitical rifts emulating from the Russian invasion of Ukraine roiled financial and commodity markets globally as uncertainty arose surrounding the extent of the conflict. Ramifications from the conflict could take months or longer to unfold, as imposed sanctions on Russia may ripple through the global…

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