Market and Economy
Diligence is the mother of good luck ~ Benjamin Franklin
Yardeni: Our Two Most Bearish Charts
“The most bearish of the lot are shown below. The first one shows the Fed’s holdings of securities versus the S&P 500. The second shows the former versus the forward P/E of the S&P 500.”Read more at the source: https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/the-most-bearish-chart-in-our-collection/
Inflation Zugzwang
Zugzwang; what a great word! A chess term meaning: it is your move, but there is no good move you can make. When faced with zugzwang, all you can do is play for time. We are in inflation zugzwang.
CPI up 8.5% Driven by Quantitative Easing over 14 Years.
CPI (Consumer Price Index) up 8.5% year over year is being driven by excessive Quantitative Easing over 14 Years. The Fed (The Federal Reserve Bank) has increased its balance sheet by 11-fold. In 2008, it was $800 billion and just peaked $8.9 Trillion. Unprecedented, hence no one including the Fed knows how this will turn…
July 2022 Economic and Market Review
Economic and Market Review July 30, 2022 Recession Concerns Remain High Recession concerns are rising as company earnings, employment data, and economic growth estimates continue to demonstrate an expected slowdown in the economy. Second quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) released in July showed a -0.9% decrease in GDP, following a -1.4% decline in the first…
June 2022 Economic and Market Review
Economic and Market Review June 30, 2022 Inflation Becomes a Cost-of-Living Crisis Attention has shifted from inflation to recession as housing, wages, interest rates, commodities, and consumer expenditures have all receded from their highs, an indication to economists that an economic slowdown or recession may be evolving. Numerous countries worldwide are restricting the export of…
May 2022 Economic and Market Review
Economic and Market Review May 30, 2022 Inflation Slows Cools Off, but Consumers are Still Feeling the Heat There’s a growing consensus among various economists and market analysts that inflation could force consumers to cut back on spending to the extent that a recession materializes. Consumer expenditures have an enormous impact on economic activity, representing…
QT (Quantitative Tightening) starts next month.
• QT (Quantitative Tightening) starts next month. Liquidity exiting system is negative for stocks
• QT or Tapering marks the end to Quantitative Easing which started in 2008.
• Fed is expected to raise Short-Term Federal Reserve Rates rapidly as well, but this is less important than liquidity of the size the the Federal Reserve Balance.
• QT will in my opinion have a negative impact on stocks.
April 2022 Economic and Market Review
Economic and Market Review April 30, 2022 Economic Chilling The most recent inflation data released revealed an 8.5% annual increase, yet came in below what many analysts had expected. A consensus is forming, among economists and analysts, that inflation may be peaking. The hope is that the Fed may ease its rapid rate rise trajectory…