• Markets had a strong June based on 7 stocks and pushed the S&P500 up almost 16% on a year-to-date basis. The rest of the market is only up around 3%.
  • In March, regional banks crises kicked off with big losses on US government bonds and deposit flight. The crises will probably move to commercial real estate which is being hit by increased vacancies and higher interest rates. QT reversal was executed to slow crises. This has worked so far but unlikely to stem crises.
  • My caution since January has proven wrong as QT reversal, investment sentiment and already existing liquidity drove market higher.
  • Behind schedule on QT, but the Fed is still staying the course. The economy is weakening.
  • Federal deficit too high at $32 Trillion, the debt ceiling debacle highlighted this. Private spending and investment will be squeezed out by federal government borrowing.