Market and Economy
Diligence is the mother of good luck
Benjamin Franklin
Video: Fed’s Jackson Hole Reveals US Government Fiscal Deficits are Unfixable without Unexpected Inflation
Powell reiterated that 2% inflation is the Fed’s (The Federal Reserve) target, with inflation currently running closer to 3% headline and 4% core. Fed governor’s concur with Powell, putting their line in the sand at 2%.
Gold’s Resurgence in a De-Dollarizing World
• China/BRICS is actively working to reduce global trade’s dependency on the US Dollar, settling international agreements in their currency, the RMB.
• The US faces numerous economic problems, from the credit rating downgrade to ballooning debt and an aging population.
• Central banks have significantly increased their gold purchases, with a 152% year-over-year increase in 2022, primarily driven by countries like China and Russia seeking to move away from the US dollar.
• Gold has been a historically stable value asset, now being one of the only options now that Treasuries are falling out of favor internationally hinting at its potential to reach unprecedented price levels.
Economic and Market Review July 2023
Economic and Market Review July 31, 2023 Overview The rating on U.S. government debt was cut from AAA to AA+ by Fitch, one of the three major credit rating agencies. Standard & Poor’s, another primary rating agency, cut its rating on U.S. government debt to AA+ in 2011, which was
Video: Federal Debt Downgrade Highlights US Government Fiscal Problems
US Debt has been downgraded from AAA to AA+ by Fitch. While credit risk is probably quite low, interest rates and inflation risk are going to become more apparent over the next decade.
Video: Great but Long Discussion of Economy, Inflation, Deficits, Energy and Gold by Luke Gromen.
Great but long discussion by an outside source.
Economic and Market Review June 2023
Economic and Market Review June 30, 2023 Overview Equity markets reacted to uncertainty in June as major indices saw an increase in volatility. Earnings continue to be a critical focal point as companies struggle to maintain elevated prices while consumer confidence has begun to erode. The Federal Reserve has essentially
Video: QT resuming, Credit Crunch underway, US Government Debt Squeezing out Private Sector.
• Markets had a strong June based on 7 stocks and pushed the S&P500 up almost 16% on a year-to-date basis. The rest of the market is only up around 3%.
• In March, regional banks crises kicked off with big losses on US government bonds and deposit flight. The crises will probably move to commercial real estate which is being hit by increased vacancies and higher interest rates. QT reversal was executed to slow crises. This has worked so far but unlikely to stem crises.
• My caution since January has proven wrong as QT reversal, investment sentiment and already existing liquidity drove market higher.
• Behind schedule on QT, but the Fed is still staying the course. The economy is weakening.
• Federal deficit too high at $32 Trillion, the debt ceiling debacle highlighted this. Private spending and investment will be squeezed out by federal government borrowing.
Economic and Market Review May 2023
Economic and Market Review May 31, 2023 Overview Congress passed legislation during last-minute negotiations to avert a default on the nation’s debt. The suspension on the U.S. government’s $31.4 trillion debt ceiling is temporary until lawmakers finalize legislation to fund ongoing federal obligations. The impasse on the debt ceiling added
Video: Debt Ceiling Theatre – US Debt Crises in the Future
Reducing Social Security and Medicare politically impossible. The Federal Reserve restarting QE (Quantitative Easing) and buying the US debt to keep rates down. QE is the most likely choice and will be wildly inflationary. Recession seems to have started in the second quarter. QE will most likely be used to restart the economy once the recession has caused enough pain.
Economic and Market Review April
Economic and Market April April 30, 2023 Continuing Weakness in Banking Sector Concern over additional bank failures has created ongoing uncertainty for equity and bond markets, as the collapse of First Republic Bank this past month has become the second-largest bank failure ever, with $229 billion in assets and over
Video: Caution not Complacency. Debt Crises, First Republic, Credit Crunch, Fed to 5.25%, QT, Down Earnings
Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen indicated the US Federal Government might be out of money by June 1 requiring extraordinary measures. This means not all expenses are paid unless Congress acts to increase the debt ceiling. The Debt Crises is a result of out of control spending by the Federal Government starting at the Great Financial Crises in 2008 and leaping further during COVID. Nearly $32 Trillion in US Federal debt, $35 Trillion in unfunded Medicare liability and $22 Trillion in unfunded Social Security liability. This is in comparison to total US Economy of $25 Trillion in 2022.
Video: QT Restart, Credit Crunch. $400 Billion Added to the Balance Sheet After SVB Failure
• SVB (Silicon Valley Bank) crises created a $550 billion of deposit withdrawals from small and medium banks creating a credit crunch.
• The Fed announced the BTFP (Bank Term Funding Program). The Fed provides one year loans to all depository institutions in exchange for treasuries at par value even when market value has declined.
•This ballooned the balance sheet from the QT (Quantitative Tightening) low of $8.34 trillion on March 8th, to $8.73 trillion on March 22nd.
•The credit crunch is just beginning.
