Market and Economy

Diligence is the mother of good luck ~ Benjamin Franklin

Building Benjamins

Economic and Market Review October

Economic and Market Review October 31, 2022 Monthly Summary The Fed continued on its steepest rate increase since the early 1980s. Political pushback against the Federal Reserve has been building as criticism surrounding the rate hikes has become a focal issue. October saw a weaker U.S. dollar helping to propel stocks higher as multi-national U.S.…


Video: Stay Cautious – QT (Quantitative Tightening) Has Just Begun

our opinion, QE will be restarted at some point as the deficit and debt spiral out of control. Inflation reduction will be pushed aside as an achievable goal. QT will likely continue until something breaks; what that something remains to be seen.


A Perspective on Quantitative Tightening

A Perspective on Quantitative Tightening October 26, 2022 CPI is Too Hot Consumer Price Index (CPI) numbers are still red hot given the year-over-year inflation rate was 8.2% for September. Even the Fed has given up on the notion that inflation is merely transitory. The latest September numbers are up 0.4% which is 4.8% annualized.…


Video: Focus on Quantitative Tightening. QT has just begun.

The Fed has reduced its balance sheet by $206 billion since Quantitative Tightening (QT) started in April. The notable part is $36 billion of it was last week; 1/6 of it. This is still a drop in the bucket compared to the 11x increase we have seen in the balance sheet since 2008. $800 billion to $8.9 trillion.

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Investor called the November market peak. Do you want to know when he thinks stocks near the bottom?

11/3/21: Are we in a Stock Market Bubble? Is it like the Internet Bubble? 1987 Black Monday crash possible?Things are looking very similar to the internet bubble. Many of the bubble stocks, like SPACs, will not survive. 12/16/21: Inflation Inflection. Inflation will drive the inflection change for value to outperform growth.• Value will begin to…

Building Benjamins

Economic and Market Review September

Economic and Market Review September 30, 2022 Monthly Summary Financial markets were distraught during the third quarter as rising rates, inflation, and slowing economic activity hindered major equity indices. Dramatic tax cuts implemented in the U.K. stirred global financial currency markets with the British pound falling to historic lows. Fiscal policy reform is becoming a…


CPI Core Too Hot, Rates Going Up, Quantitative Tightening (QT) Still Sluggish, Stay Cautious

The CPI numbers that came out last week were hotter than expected. Specifically the core rate increased at 0.6% month over month which is 7.2% annualized. This all but guarantees the fed will choose another 75bps (0.75%) hike in interest rates to 3.25-3.50%.

Building Benjamins

Economic and Market Review August

Economic and Market Review August 31, 2022 Monthly Summary Recession fears pressed on markets as equities pulled back from a mid-summer rally that many analysts suspect was short-lived. U.S. equities began August in rebound mode but reversed course to end the month in negative territory. Crude oil and gasoline prices fell further in August, offering…

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Video: Quantitative Tightening, QT, doubles to $95 billion per month in September. Negative for markets.

Quantitative Tightening, QT, is supposed to double to to $95 billion per month in September. This up from the planned $47.5 billion a month for June, July and August.