Economic and Market Review
December 31, 2025
| Equity Indices | Index Level | 2025 Return |
| Dow Jones | 48,977.18 | 14.68% |
| S&P500 | 6,902.05 | 15.51% |
| NASDAQ | 23,395.82 | 17.77% |
| Developed World Ex-US | 421.99 | 32.07% |
| MSCI–Emerging | 56.86 | 34.90% |
| Bonds (Yield) | Yield | 2025 Return |
| 2yr Treasury | 3.38% | 4.92% |
| 10yr Treasury | 4.00% | 7.74% |
| 10yr Municipal | 2.68% | 3.01% |
| U.S. Prime Rate | 6.75% | |
| Commodities | Price | 2025 Return |
| Gold | $4,455.30 | 68.44% |
| Silver | $76.19 | 155.64% |
| Crude Oil (WTI) | $58.35 | -21.11% |
| Natural Gas | $2.89 | -9.06% |
| Currencies | Index Level | 2025 Return |
| Dollar Index (DXY) | 98.31 | -9.23% |
Overview
The October 1st to November 12th federal funding lapse continued to distort the monthly macro data, BLS explicitly noted it did not collect October 2025 CPI survey data and could not retroactively recover it, and the October household labor survey month was missing, pushing analysts to interpret trends using multi-month comparisons rather than clean month-over-month sequences.
Against that backdrop, the Federal Reserve cut rates 25 bp on December 10 to a 3.50%–3.75% target range and acknowledged that downside risks to employment had risen while uncertainty remained elevated.
Into year-end, the New York Fed removed the limit for standing overnight repo operations early in December, and on the final trading day of 2025 firms borrowed a record $74.6B via the facility, though this is likely liquidity management rather than stress.
Macro prints were supportive overall, November CPI came in at 2.7% with payrolls rising 64k, reinforcing a “cooling but not collapsing” labor-market interpretation. BEA’s initial estimate put Q3 2025 real GDP at 4.3%, led by consumer spending, exports, and government spending, partly offset by weaker investment.
AI-Related Stocks Lead the Market
Nearly 60% of equity market gains have come from communications and tech. Though, not all were winners. Morningstar notes that companies focused heavily on software actually detracted 1.0% from the market during 2025. Despite a shaky macroeconomic background, the consumer defensive sector rose just 1.11%.
Despite stretched valuations, it appears that most analysts still expect AI-hardware providers to continue their rally far into the end of the decade. This of course, is driven by massive hyperscaler spending commitments which are expected to continue into 2026.
US Dollar’s Worst Performance in a Decade
The DXY which measures the dollars value against a basket of currencies, declined 9.23% during 2025. The selloff was largely driven by long-standing concerns, such as continued deficit spending, amplified by shorter term concerns such as Fed independence and tariff policy.
Historically though, the DXY is still elevated, and the 2025 decline of the USD brings it more close in line to where it has historically traded.
US Factory Activity Contracts for 10th Straight Month
Factory activity hit a 14-month low in December, with a contraction in orders driving the decline. The ISM, who compiles the PMI, stated that recovery is unlikely in the near-term, though tax-cuts implemented by Trump could at least provide a softer landing.
Survey respondents continue to single out tariffs, especially among those with price-sensitive inputs like chemical manufacturing firms. Ironically, the tariffs implemented to reshore domestic industry have likely ended up being just another nail in the coffin to an industry already struggling with worker shortages. Despite the PMI falling to 47.9, ISM economists generally consider any figure above 42.3 to be consistent with a growing economy.
