Growth Stock Thoughts

An Investment in Knowledge Pays the Best Interest

Benjamin Franklin

 

PVH’s Undervalued Brand Renaissance at 5.6x PE

• Trading at just 5.6x PE following a 38.7% YTD decline.
• PVH’s strategic consolidation of its Tommy Hilfiger and Calvin Klein brands aims to restore pricing power and improve brand control, driving longer-term earnings power.
• Despite operational challenges, PVH maintains robust free cash flow of $715.3 million over the trailing twelve months, and a healthy balance sheet of 2.6x debt to EBITDA.
• While China represents 6% of revenue and 16% of EBT, PVH’s addition to China’s “unreliable entity list” appears to be priced in.
• PVH’s strategic initiatives including organic e-commerce growth and manufacturing consolidation position the company for potential margin improvement toward its long-term 15% operating margin target.

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St. Joe has Hidden Value in Discounted Real Estate Portfolio

• 1.25% Yield
• Owns 167,000 acres of land in the Panhandle of Florida, which we believe can be monetized at a current present value of at least $100 per share.
• The major Bay-Walton Sector Plan covering 110,500 acres slated for development through 2064, including 170k residential units and 22 million sqft of commercial space.
• Special zoning status reduces regulatory hurdles for planned residential and commercial development.
• Record-setting year for hospitality segment offset the slowdown in the region’s housing market after a boom in 2021-22.
• The Bay-Walton County area has an annual population growth rate of 3.2%, providing a secular demographic tailwind.

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2025 Is ENVX’s Inflection Point With First Commercial Production

• First to market 100% silicon anode lithium-ion battery, with 30% better energy density and faster charging than graphite anode batteries.
• Fab2 Production ramp in Malaysia, expecting first customer samples by mid-2025 and full serialized production by the end of September 2025.
• OEM agreements secured with 2 of the top 8 global smartphone manufacturers, a major IoT company, and 2 wearables customers.
• Automotive potential with a non-binding agreement to co-develop larger-scale battery cells for EV (Electric Vehicle) applications.
• Raised $100M in 2024, has enough funding to operate until at least September 2025.

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Ring Energy Eyes Production Expansion Over the Medium Term

• Production increased 11.5% for the first 9 months of 2024, though a lower pricing environment had sales up 8.3% over the same period.
• Targeting leverage ratio of 1.0x debt to adjusted EBITDA, currently 1.59x.
• After REI reaches its target leverage, we expect management to ramp organic production or engage in another acquisition.
• Based on transactions of similar asset profiles, REI could be worth $2.44/share in private market value.

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MYTE Looks to Expand Luxury Offering Breadth Through YNAP Acquisition

• MYT Netherlands Parent (MYTE), operating Mytheresa, will acquire Yoox-Net-a-Porter (YNAP) from Richemont and rebrand as LuxExperience.
• The combined entity is expected to reach $3.2 billion in gross merchandise value in 2025, with ambitions to grow into a $4 billion gross merchandise value luxury e-commerce giant by 2030.
• Richemont will provide MYTE with a $106 million working capital facility and YNAP’s $590 million in cash, while MYTE issues 43 million new shares to Richemont.
• The luxury e-commerce market is expected to double to $180 billion by 2030, with the total luxury market growing at 3-7% annually.
• YNAP generates 45% of revenue from North America, offering MYTE an opportunity to accelerate US growth.

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Solar Stocks to Brighten Your Portfolio: Canadian Solar (CSIQ) and First Solar (FSLR)

CSIQ:
• Trading at far less than the sum of its parts, with Recurrent Energy and CSI Solar combined being worth $87.26 per CSIQ share.
ion to enhance recurring revenues.
• The global push toward renewable energy is secular and likely to accelerate as AI-driven datacenter demand rises.
• Onshoring more of the manufacturing base to the US will mitigate tariff risks in both batteries and solar.

FSLR:
• Growing manufacturing base to 25GW by 2026, with 14GW in the US. Fully integrated supply chain independent of Chinese supply mitigates most tariff risks.
• Sell-off driven by fears of loss of IRA tax credits, however, FSLR remains profitable without the credits and its unlikely they will be repealed in their entirety.
• Largest US solar manufacturer and #10 in the world by market share.

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First Solar Shines Through Cloudy Market

• Growing manufacturing base to 25GW by 2026, with 14GW in the US. Fully integrated supply chain independent of Chinese supply mitigates most tariff risks.
• Sell-off driven by fears of loss of IRA tax credits, however, FSLR remains profitable without the credits and its unlikely they will be repealed in their entirety.
• Largest US solar manufacturer and #10 in the world by market share.
• FSLR’s 17 TOPCon patents might yield a third-party sale or royalties, as the U.S. International Trade Commission looks into banning infringing imports and the Chinese government upheld FSLR’s ownership.
• FSLR’s CdTe modules have higher temperature tolerance and lower annual degradation rates compared to Chinese-dominated c-Si modules.

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Onshoring Brightens Canadian Solar’s Future

• Trading at far less than the sum of its parts, with Recurrent Energy and CSI Solar combined being worth $87.26 per CSIQ share.
• Sold 20% of utility-scale project manager to Blackrock, repositioning it to begin operating battery-storage and solar-generation to enhance recurring revenues.
• The global push toward renewable energy is secular and likely to accelerate as AI-driven datacenter demand rises.
• Onshoring more of the manufacturing base to the US will mitigate tariff risks in both batteries and solar.
• CSI Solar has shipped over 22 GW of solar components year to date, making it the #5 spot in global market share.

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StoneCo’s Elevated Take-Rate Yields $350 Million Buyback

• Recently announced $350 million repurchase agreement, representing more than 10% of shares.
• Despite pressure from low-cost payment architectures, STNE has been able to maintain a high take-rate thanks to value-added services.
• Management indicated it may sell off the software arm to run a more lean and transparent business.
• Obtained banking license in early 2024, allowing it access to cheaper funding and increases the stickiness of the business model.
• Brazil has a fragmented payments industry with ample cross-selling opportunities.

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Fidelity National Financial has Strong and Safe Dividend Despite Housing Market

• 3.3% Dividend Yield recently announced 4% dividend increase.
• Expects robust housing recovery in 2026, betting on a similar timeline for commercial real estate.
• #1 market share in the US for title insurance, in both agency and direct sales.
• F&G has secular tailwind in life and annuity from aging population.
• Despite downturn in housing market, FNF grew revenues by 8% over the first 9 months of 2024.

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Global Payments Slims Down with SMB Focus

• Committed to repurchasing 2.3% of shares within the next quarter, on top of a modest 1.0% dividend.
• Strong presence in the SMB (Small-medium business) space, consolidating its 16 brands into one coherent entity.
• #1 commercial card processor in the US, processing more than 35 billion transactions annually across 830 million accounts.
• 70% attachment rate for new offerings to existing customers.

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TDK’s Tech Surge Sparks Free Cash Potential

• TDK is leader in small solid state batteries and announced supply agreement with Apple
• Growth areas in wearables, phones, IoT (Internet of Things) and EVs (Electric Vehicles)
• Dominant market share in several areas, including in smartphone battery components, holding the #1 market share of 50-60%.
• Strong manufacturing and materials science expertise, first to bring silicon anode batteries to market in 2023.
• Targeting late-stage development products for M&A.
• Aggressive capital efficiency plan, potentially divesting business units that do not meet the 10% ROIC watermark.

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