Dividend Stock Thoughts

An Investment in Knowledge Pays the Best Interest

Benjamin Franklin

 

Tyson Foods Farms Free Cash Despite Cyclical Downturn

• 3.14% Dividend Yield
• 13 consecutive years of dividend increases, most recently increasing by 2% in November 2024.
• Despite overlapping downcycles in pork and beef markets, Tyson generated $1.5 billion in free cash flow.
• Shifting more production to high margin value-added products like pre-made food and pre-seasoned meat across all segments.
• Targeting leverage ratio of net debt to EBITDA of under 2.0x, currently 2.6x with most debt maturing past 2027.

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Despite Neuroscience Setback AbbVie has Strong Recovery Ahead

• 3.95% Dividend Yield.
• Stock dropped 17.3% on the failure of Emraclidine in Phase 2 Trials, a drug only projected to make up ~7% of revenues.
• Aggressively expanding oncology offerings, acquiring ADC (antibody drug conjugates, non-chemo cancer drugs) expert ImmunoGen.
• Expects to replace Humira revenue in 2025 with two new immunology drugs and grow to be more than $27 billion in annual revenues.
• Shifting focus in neuroscience to Alzheimer’s and Parkinson’s, areas with few effective on-market treatments.

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Fidelity National Financial has Strong and Safe Dividend Despite Housing Market

• 3.3% Dividend Yield recently announced 4% dividend increase.
• Expects robust housing recovery in 2026, betting on a similar timeline for commercial real estate.
• #1 market share in the US for title insurance, in both agency and direct sales.
• F&G has secular tailwind in life and annuity from aging population.
• Despite downturn in housing market, FNF grew revenues by 8% over the first 9 months of 2024.

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Total Energies Has Strong Free Cash Backed By High Yielding Growth Profile

• 5.3% Dividend Yield with 5% dividend growth.
• Strong long-term production profile, expecting a 4% CAGR output increase to 2030 with breakeven below $30/boe (barrel of oil equivalent).
• Long-term focus on LNGs (Liquified Natural Gas), expecting to grow export capacity by more than 50% by 2030, with 6 Mt/y (million tons per year) in long-term supply contracts signed with Asian importers.
• Trades at an attractive valuation at just 7.8x earnings.
• Committed to $2 billion in buybacks each quarter of 2025.

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Quest Diagnostics Has Massive Secular Tailwind and Strong Base

• 2.0% Yield.
• Strong secular volume tailwind from aging population, with Medicare Advantage holders having a higher average revenue-per-test.
• AI (Artificial Intelligence) in pathology testing should drive high margin growth.
• Tailwind from more bespoke testing, with genetic testing seeing a market-wide spending growth of 8% and 5% volume growth according to Avalon.
• Increasing leverage to 2.5-3.0x debt to EBITDA to enable more freedom in aggressive acquisitions.
• Strong M&A profile, purchasing Canadian provider LifeLabs for $1 billion, which will generate $710 million in additional annual revenues by 2025.

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Weyerhaeuser Offers Industry Leading Asset Portfolio

• 2.84% Yield.
• Industry-leading 90% of revenue comes from working timberland rather than leasing it for harvesting rights (stumpage)
• Largest timberland holdings in North America with more than 10.5 million acres.
• Long-term tailwinds from historic pent-up demand and lows in new housing.
• Timber assets generally appreciate with inflation and tree growth.

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UPS’s Huge Free Cash Backs its Leading 5.0% Dividend

• 5.0% Yield.
• Offering services to enhance margin including more small-business mix and specialized medical logistics services.
• Consolidating 200 sorting centers, with the new automated counterparts offering a reported 30% efficiency improvement.
• Expects to generate $5.8 billion in free cash in 2024, adding to its already massive $6.3 billion cash position.
• Industry-leading capital efficiency, with a return on invested capital median of 27% for the last 3 years.

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FedEx Presents Opportunity After Sell Off

• FedEx’s DRIVE and Network 2.0 programs aim to streamline operations, saving $6 billion annually by 2028 without sacrificing top line growth.
• Despite a recent 9% stock price drop, FedEx offers a 4.0% buyback yield and 2.1% dividend yield, making it attractive for long-term investors.
• The expiration of the USPS airmail contract poses short-term challenges but could improve margins through better fleet utilization and cost management.
• FedEx maintains strong financials with $5.9 billion in cash and a net debt to EBITDA of 1.9x, ensuring stability amid economic uncertainties.

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Potato Pros Lamb Weston Invest in Volume

• 2.2% Yield.
• LW holds #1 market share in North America, and #2 for the rest of the world for frozen-potato products.
• Dominance in the frozen-potato product market, being the provider for French-fries for customers such as McDonalds, Chic Fil A, Arby’s and Sonic.
• Transitioning to a volume-focused growth strategy rather than pricing-focused.
• Expects headwinds in restaurant traffic to begin to alleviate in the middle of 2025.

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Albertsons-Kroger Deal Offers a Potential Premium

• 2.7% Yield.
• Kroger agreed to purchase Albertsons for $24.6 billion in October 2022.
• If approved, Albertsons shareholders will receive $27.25 per share, a 48.3% premium to the current stock price.
• Albertsons holds 6.4% of total grocery market share in 2023, while Kroger holds 10.1%.
• $600 million claw back provision to be paid to Albertsons if the merger does not go through, recouping its costs.

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Dividend Aristocrat Target Waits for Consumer Rebound

• 2.94% Yield.
• Expanding margins despite sales slump, increasing gross margin by 160bps.
• Deleveraged balance sheet down to 1.8x net debt to EBITDA, down substantially from 2022 highs.
• Approaching holiday season will buoy results until rate cuts begin to impact consumer spending habits back toward discretionary goods.
• Resumed share buybacks, authorized outstanding buybacks are 13.6% of outstanding shares.
• Stock is a hold post August 21st earnings release as the stock has popped 22.5% since its August 5th lows.

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