Dividend Stock Thoughts

An Investment in Knowledge Pays the Best Interest

Benjamin Franklin

 

REPX Takes Advantage of Low Valuations To Build Asset Base

• 5.67% Dividend Yield
• $120m pipeline project should increase realizations in New Mexico as well as unlock the potential of the newly acquired Silverback II assets.
• Power generation JV expansion to 56% of Texas field and the introduction of similar generation in New Mexico reduces costs by using low-value byproduct gas.
• 2025’s focus will be on expanding the undeveloped asset base rather than new drills while hydrocarbon prices are depressed.
• Strong balance sheet with breakeven in the mid $30 range and an estimated net debt to EBITDA of 1.3x post-acquisition close.

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SWK Retools Production to Move Out of China

• 4.64% Dividend Yield
• Management has initiated a 24-month plan to eliminate Chinese manufacturing dependency, increase USMCA compliance for Mexican operations, and implement targeted price increases.
• Strong brand recognition with DeWalt, Craftsman, Stanley, with a renewed focus on the professional sector.
• Expects over $500 million in free cash during 2025 despite tariffs.
• Aggressive transformation, with a long-term target of 35% gross margin (currently 30.2%) and 16% EBITDA margin (currently 9.8%).

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Pork Powerhouse Smithfield Pivots to High-Margin Focus

• 4.35% Dividend Yield
• SFD maintains strong financial health with a 0.7x debt-to-EBITDA ratio, $928 million cash on hand, and no major debt payments until 2027.
• The company plans $400-500 million in capex for 2025, split between maintenance and operational improvements focused on automation.
• The company has already cut 20% of its herd size since December 2024, with the goal of internally producing only 30% of needed hogs to stabilize margins across commodity cycles.
• Despite export challenges, the USDA only expects a 2% drop in overall pork trade, and low storage levels may limit pricing pressures from oversupply in the domestic market.

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Papa Johns Delivers a Slice of Stability in an Uncertain Market

• 5.9% Dividend Yield.
• QSR (quick service restaurants) have historically been resilient in economic downturn, sometimes even seeing volume increases.
• Improved unit-economics for franchisees by waiving certain fees to drive down payback period from 5.5 years to 3.2 years, which we believe will incentivize expansion.
• Papa Dough loyalty program has 17.5 million active members, up 21% since 2023, thanks to the program revamp providing better value and more tailored discounts.
• Pivot to value offerings to boost short-term volumes and ensure market share expansion, making it up over the long term through commissary markup increases over the next 5 years.

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Boyd is Betting on High Shareholder Returns and Long Term Growth

• 1.12% Dividend yield, committed to repurchasing at least 7.5% of outstanding shares in 2025.
• Despite some economic uncertainty, Boyd estimates 2025 will be overall flat outside of the online segment, where it still expects 8.6% bottom line growth.
• Boyd has a $317.5 million cash position and currently generates $556.7 million in annual free cash.
• $200-250 million in annual maintenance capex required, with $200 million additional slated for renovation and $100 million for breaking ground on a new Casino in Virginia.
• Fast growing online segment, with online revenue growing 43.6% on top of a 5% equity stake in FanDuel.

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Whirlpool’s 8.2% Dividend Powerhouse Spinning Through the Downcycle

• 8.2% Dividend Yield
• Despite current headwinds in North American sales WHR’s high domestic manufacturing footprint (80% of US sales) provides insulation against potential tariff impacts.
• With a debt reduction target from 4.4x to 3.4x by end of 2025 and projected $550 million in free cash flow, WHR appears financially positioned to weather current housing market weakness.
• The stock has declined 27.0% over the trailing twelve months, potentially creating an attractive entry point as worst-case scenarios appear priced in.

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Automotive Drives Solid Revenue Base for HIMX

• 3.0% Yield.
• HIMX’s automotive display-driver sales increase just under 20% year over year, now representing around 50% of global market share.
• Invested in partner FOCI, seeking to accelerate development of CPO (co-packaged optics) to improve efficiency in data transmission within datacenters.
• Continued partnership with “leading AR (augmented reality) partner” in creating new consumer AR wearables device.
• Computer vision partnership with NVDA (Nvidia), allowing HIMX’s technology to be plug-and-play with NVDA software.

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LYB Expects 2025 Recovery to Support 6.9% Yield

• 6.9% Yield.
• Despite a high cash payout ratio of 106.3%, LYB intends to increase its dividend in 2025, backed by a $3.4 billion cash position.
• LYB reported growing industrial demand in North America, with high utilization rates and cost advantages from low natural gas prices.
• LYB is reviewing six underperforming assets in Europe, potentially leading to divestitures, closures, or efficiency investments.
• LYB is shutting down its Texas refinery, incurring $345 million in closing costs but freeing up $240 million in working capital.
• LYB’s net debt/EBITDA ratio of 2.1x is below the industry median of 2.4x.

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Turnaround Looks Likely for B2Gold with Geopolitical Risks Mitigated

• 3.4% Dividend Yield
• Opportunistic repurchase authorization funded with dividend reduction.
• Fekola mine in Mali concerns are resolved, expecting to receive mining authorization in early 2025.
• First commercialization of Goose mine in Canada in September.
• BTG expects 2025 production growth of 27%.
• Strong financial position, selling off royalties and issuing convertible notes to bolster cash position and pay down high-interest revolver.

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Perrigo Paves the Way for Recovery with Margin Focus

• 4.6% Dividend Yield, 21 consecutive years of growth.
• Concluded quality assurance program in the infant formula segment, expects to ramp production and return to form by 2026.
• Entering cost saving program, through consolidation of the organization and headcount cuts expects to save $150 million by 2026.
• Creating new ‘disruptive growth’ team to identify new markets to enter.
• Refinanced debt on the balance sheet, with new maturities not starting until 2030. Expects meaningful deleveraging below 3.0x net debt to EBITDA by 2026.
• Entering into voluntary non-renewals of contracts that are margin dilutive

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Secular Silver Shortfall Could Keep Prices Higher for Longer for Pan American Silver

• $0.40 annual base dividend, yielding 1.89%.
• Variable dividend program linked to gross debt, paying up to $0.72 annually or yielding 3.3%.
• Demand projected to continue to outstrip supply in silver markets, with PAAS estimating an annual shortfall of 150 Moz to 2028.
• Strong base of gold assets (73% of revenue) with high silver exposure (20% of revenue).
• Record high cash position of $887.3 million thanks to the sale of non-core assets, giving PAAS no net debt.
• For the year ending December 2024, PAAS had an output of 21.1 Moz of silver and 893 Koz of gold.

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Shift to Smoke-Free Sparks Steady Dividend Growth

• 4.5% dividend yield, 16 consecutive years of dividend growth.
• Renewed interest in the US market, bringing new IQOS products to market in the second half of 2025 and continued investment in the Zyn brand.
• Plans to re-institute share repurchase program after reaching 2.0x net debt to EBITDA target, currently 3.0x.
• Smoke-free nicotine products have 2.6x the gross margin per unit compared to cigarettes.
• Brand-loyalty in cigarettes has meant price increases have offset or even exceeded volumes.

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