Dividend Stock Thoughts
An Investment in Knowledge Pays the Best Interest
Benjamin Franklin
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Turnaround Looks Likely for B2Gold with Geopolitical Risks Mitigated
• 3.4% Dividend Yield
• Opportunistic repurchase authorization funded with dividend reduction.
• Fekola mine in Mali concerns are resolved, expecting to receive mining authorization in early 2025.
• First commercialization of Goose mine in Canada in September.
• BTG expects 2025 production growth of 27%.
• Strong financial position, selling off royalties and issuing convertible notes to bolster cash position and pay down high-interest revolver.
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Perrigo Paves the Way for Recovery with Margin Focus
• 4.6% Dividend Yield, 21 consecutive years of growth.
• Concluded quality assurance program in the infant formula segment, expects to ramp production and return to form by 2026.
• Entering cost saving program, through consolidation of the organization and headcount cuts expects to save $150 million by 2026.
• Creating new ‘disruptive growth’ team to identify new markets to enter.
• Refinanced debt on the balance sheet, with new maturities not starting until 2030. Expects meaningful deleveraging below 3.0x net debt to EBITDA by 2026.
• Entering into voluntary non-renewals of contracts that are margin dilutive
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Secular Silver Shortfall Could Keep Prices Higher for Longer for Pan American Silver
• $0.40 annual base dividend, yielding 1.89%.
• Variable dividend program linked to gross debt, paying up to $0.72 annually or yielding 3.3%.
• Demand projected to continue to outstrip supply in silver markets, with PAAS estimating an annual shortfall of 150 Moz to 2028.
• Strong base of gold assets (73% of revenue) with high silver exposure (20% of revenue).
• Record high cash position of $887.3 million thanks to the sale of non-core assets, giving PAAS no net debt.
• For the year ending December 2024, PAAS had an output of 21.1 Moz of silver and 893 Koz of gold.
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Shift to Smoke-Free Sparks Steady Dividend Growth
• 4.5% dividend yield, 16 consecutive years of dividend growth.
• Renewed interest in the US market, bringing new IQOS products to market in the second half of 2025 and continued investment in the Zyn brand.
• Plans to re-institute share repurchase program after reaching 2.0x net debt to EBITDA target, currently 3.0x.
• Smoke-free nicotine products have 2.6x the gross margin per unit compared to cigarettes.
• Brand-loyalty in cigarettes has meant price increases have offset or even exceeded volumes.
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Civitas Continues to Deliver Peer-leading Free Cash
• 4.2% base dividend, 50% of free cash flow going toward share repurchases.
• Colorado regulatory uncertainties have historically pressured valuations, but the early 2024 agreement has delayed major risks until 2028.
• Civitas has partially shifted to the Permian Basin, emphasizing cost reduction in drilling operations rather than outright production gains.
• Still some minor expansion in DJ Basin, advancing with 4-mile lateral drills in premium-priced high-grade oil.
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Bath and Body Works Has Long Term Earnings Potential
• 2.2% Dividend Yield
• Loyal customer base, with loyalty members making up 80% of sales.
• 85% of the supply chain originated in North America, mitigating tariff risk.
• Produces 55% of its end products in-house, with 40% of products on offer being seasonal only.
• Peer leader in sales per square foot with $1,074/sqft in sales.
• Expanding into ‘adjacent’ markets like products marketed at men and products marketed to Gen Z to boost new-customer growth.
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Tyson Foods Farms Free Cash Despite Cyclical Downturn
• 3.14% Dividend Yield
• 13 consecutive years of dividend increases, most recently increasing by 2% in November 2024.
• Despite overlapping downcycles in pork and beef markets, Tyson generated $1.5 billion in free cash flow.
• Shifting more production to high margin value-added products like pre-made food and pre-seasoned meat across all segments.
• Targeting leverage ratio of net debt to EBITDA of under 2.0x, currently 2.6x with most debt maturing past 2027.
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Despite Neuroscience Setback AbbVie has Strong Recovery Ahead
• 3.95% Dividend Yield.
• Stock dropped 17.3% on the failure of Emraclidine in Phase 2 Trials, a drug only projected to make up ~7% of revenues.
• Aggressively expanding oncology offerings, acquiring ADC (antibody drug conjugates, non-chemo cancer drugs) expert ImmunoGen.
• Expects to replace Humira revenue in 2025 with two new immunology drugs and grow to be more than $27 billion in annual revenues.
• Shifting focus in neuroscience to Alzheimer’s and Parkinson’s, areas with few effective on-market treatments.
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Fidelity National Financial has Strong and Safe Dividend Despite Housing Market
• 3.3% Dividend Yield recently announced 4% dividend increase.
• Expects robust housing recovery in 2026, betting on a similar timeline for commercial real estate.
• #1 market share in the US for title insurance, in both agency and direct sales.
• F&G has secular tailwind in life and annuity from aging population.
• Despite downturn in housing market, FNF grew revenues by 8% over the first 9 months of 2024.
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Total Energies Has Strong Free Cash Backed By High Yielding Growth Profile
• 5.3% Dividend Yield with 5% dividend growth.
• Strong long-term production profile, expecting a 4% CAGR output increase to 2030 with breakeven below $30/boe (barrel of oil equivalent).
• Long-term focus on LNGs (Liquified Natural Gas), expecting to grow export capacity by more than 50% by 2030, with 6 Mt/y (million tons per year) in long-term supply contracts signed with Asian importers.
• Trades at an attractive valuation at just 7.8x earnings.
• Committed to $2 billion in buybacks each quarter of 2025.
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Oshkosh’s Stable Dividend Driven by Long-Term Contract Wins
• 1.8% dividend yield.
• Secular tailwind from municipal underspending and defense rearmament.
• Revenue forecasted to grow 10.8% in 2024, driven by increased demand in the vocational segment.
• Expanding access business into Europe, trying to get ahead of tariffs.
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Quest Diagnostics Has Massive Secular Tailwind and Strong Base
• 2.0% Yield.
• Strong secular volume tailwind from aging population, with Medicare Advantage holders having a higher average revenue-per-test.
• AI (Artificial Intelligence) in pathology testing should drive high margin growth.
• Tailwind from more bespoke testing, with genetic testing seeing a market-wide spending growth of 8% and 5% volume growth according to Avalon.
• Increasing leverage to 2.5-3.0x debt to EBITDA to enable more freedom in aggressive acquisitions.
• Strong M&A profile, purchasing Canadian provider LifeLabs for $1 billion, which will generate $710 million in additional annual revenues by 2025.