Stock Thoughts
An Investment in Knowledge Pays the Best Interest
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Ring Energy Eyes Production Expansion Over the Medium Term
• Production increased 11.5% for the first 9 months of 2024, though a lower pricing environment had sales up 8.3% over the same period.
• Targeting leverage ratio of 1.0x debt to adjusted EBITDA, currently 1.59x.
• After REI reaches its target leverage, we expect management to ramp organic production or engage in another acquisition.
• Based on transactions of similar asset profiles, REI could be worth $2.44/share in private market value.
MYTE Looks to Expand Luxury Offering Breadth Through YNAP Acquisition
• MYT Netherlands Parent (MYTE), operating Mytheresa, will acquire Yoox-Net-a-Porter (YNAP) from Richemont and rebrand as LuxExperience.
• The combined entity is expected to reach $3.2 billion in gross merchandise value in 2025, with ambitions to grow into a $4 billion gross merchandise value luxury e-commerce giant by 2030.
• Richemont will provide MYTE with a $106 million working capital facility and YNAP’s $590 million in cash, while MYTE issues 43 million new shares to Richemont.
• The luxury e-commerce market is expected to double to $180 billion by 2030, with the total luxury market growing at 3-7% annually.
• YNAP generates 45% of revenue from North America, offering MYTE an opportunity to accelerate US growth.
Turnaround Looks Likely for B2Gold with Geopolitical Risks Mitigated
• 3.4% Dividend Yield
• Opportunistic repurchase authorization funded with dividend reduction.
• Fekola mine in Mali concerns are resolved, expecting to receive mining authorization in early 2025.
• First commercialization of Goose mine in Canada in September.
• BTG expects 2025 production growth of 27%.
• Strong financial position, selling off royalties and issuing convertible notes to bolster cash position and pay down high-interest revolver.
Perrigo Paves the Way for Recovery with Margin Focus
• 4.6% Dividend Yield, 21 consecutive years of growth.
• Concluded quality assurance program in the infant formula segment, expects to ramp production and return to form by 2026.
• Entering cost saving program, through consolidation of the organization and headcount cuts expects to save $150 million by 2026.
• Creating new ‘disruptive growth’ team to identify new markets to enter.
• Refinanced debt on the balance sheet, with new maturities not starting until 2030. Expects meaningful deleveraging below 3.0x net debt to EBITDA by 2026.
• Entering into voluntary non-renewals of contracts that are margin dilutive
Secular Silver Shortfall Could Keep Prices Higher for Longer for Pan American Silver
• $0.40 annual base dividend, yielding 1.89%.
• Variable dividend program linked to gross debt, paying up to $0.72 annually or yielding 3.3%.
• Demand projected to continue to outstrip supply in silver markets, with PAAS estimating an annual shortfall of 150 Moz to 2028.
• Strong base of gold assets (73% of revenue) with high silver exposure (20% of revenue).
• Record high cash position of $887.3 million thanks to the sale of non-core assets, giving PAAS no net debt.
• For the year ending December 2024, PAAS had an output of 21.1 Moz of silver and 893 Koz of gold.
Solar Stocks to Brighten Your Portfolio: Canadian Solar (CSIQ) and First Solar (FSLR)
CSIQ:
• Trading at far less than the sum of its parts, with Recurrent Energy and CSI Solar combined being worth $87.26 per CSIQ share.
ion to enhance recurring revenues.
• The global push toward renewable energy is secular and likely to accelerate as AI-driven datacenter demand rises.
• Onshoring more of the manufacturing base to the US will mitigate tariff risks in both batteries and solar.
FSLR:
• Growing manufacturing base to 25GW by 2026, with 14GW in the US. Fully integrated supply chain independent of Chinese supply mitigates most tariff risks.
• Sell-off driven by fears of loss of IRA tax credits, however, FSLR remains profitable without the credits and its unlikely they will be repealed in their entirety.
• Largest US solar manufacturer and #10 in the world by market share.
First Solar Shines Through Cloudy Market
• Growing manufacturing base to 25GW by 2026, with 14GW in the US. Fully integrated supply chain independent of Chinese supply mitigates most tariff risks.
• Sell-off driven by fears of loss of IRA tax credits, however, FSLR remains profitable without the credits and its unlikely they will be repealed in their entirety.
• Largest US solar manufacturer and #10 in the world by market share.
• FSLR’s 17 TOPCon patents might yield a third-party sale or royalties, as the U.S. International Trade Commission looks into banning infringing imports and the Chinese government upheld FSLR’s ownership.
• FSLR’s CdTe modules have higher temperature tolerance and lower annual degradation rates compared to Chinese-dominated c-Si modules.
Shift to Smoke-Free Sparks Steady Dividend Growth
• 4.5% dividend yield, 16 consecutive years of dividend growth.
• Renewed interest in the US market, bringing new IQOS products to market in the second half of 2025 and continued investment in the Zyn brand.
• Plans to re-institute share repurchase program after reaching 2.0x net debt to EBITDA target, currently 3.0x.
• Smoke-free nicotine products have 2.6x the gross margin per unit compared to cigarettes.
• Brand-loyalty in cigarettes has meant price increases have offset or even exceeded volumes.
Onshoring Brightens Canadian Solar’s Future
• Trading at far less than the sum of its parts, with Recurrent Energy and CSI Solar combined being worth $87.26 per CSIQ share.
• Sold 20% of utility-scale project manager to Blackrock, repositioning it to begin operating battery-storage and solar-generation to enhance recurring revenues.
• The global push toward renewable energy is secular and likely to accelerate as AI-driven datacenter demand rises.
• Onshoring more of the manufacturing base to the US will mitigate tariff risks in both batteries and solar.
• CSI Solar has shipped over 22 GW of solar components year to date, making it the #5 spot in global market share.
Civitas Continues to Deliver Peer-leading Free Cash
• 4.2% base dividend, 50% of free cash flow going toward share repurchases.
• Colorado regulatory uncertainties have historically pressured valuations, but the early 2024 agreement has delayed major risks until 2028.
• Civitas has partially shifted to the Permian Basin, emphasizing cost reduction in drilling operations rather than outright production gains.
• Still some minor expansion in DJ Basin, advancing with 4-mile lateral drills in premium-priced high-grade oil.
Bath and Body Works Has Long Term Earnings Potential
• 2.2% Dividend Yield
• Loyal customer base, with loyalty members making up 80% of sales.
• 85% of the supply chain originated in North America, mitigating tariff risk.
• Produces 55% of its end products in-house, with 40% of products on offer being seasonal only.
• Peer leader in sales per square foot with $1,074/sqft in sales.
• Expanding into ‘adjacent’ markets like products marketed at men and products marketed to Gen Z to boost new-customer growth.
Tyson Foods Farms Free Cash Despite Cyclical Downturn
• 3.14% Dividend Yield
• 13 consecutive years of dividend increases, most recently increasing by 2% in November 2024.
• Despite overlapping downcycles in pork and beef markets, Tyson generated $1.5 billion in free cash flow.
• Shifting more production to high margin value-added products like pre-made food and pre-seasoned meat across all segments.
• Targeting leverage ratio of net debt to EBITDA of under 2.0x, currently 2.6x with most debt maturing past 2027.
